Research & development

The Mach 2 update expands the original Balance Methodology (see here the methodology webpage) by adopting a three-pillar approach and integrating recent scientific research findings with new understanding from across the policymaking, NGO, and academic communities. It keeps the Methodology’s core commitment to integrated sustainable development while adding detailed sections on regenerative agriculture, biochar, carbon capture options, and an explicit policy section on carbon finance and market governance. Crucially, Mach 2 formalises contractual principles and financial accountability mechanisms intended to ensure permanence, reduce greenwashing risk, and align projects with multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals—making the outcomes easier to verify and value.

At the heart of Mach 2 is the operational idea of a “Balance Unit”: a co-crediting construct that links aboveground and soil carbon accounting with biodiversity indicators and community safeguards so that its value reflects both climatic and ecological performance. The methodology describes practical field proxies, verification approaches and conservative assumptions to keep early estimates robust while allowing refinement as project data accumulate. For investors, these methodological choices translate into reduced portfolio risk (through longer retirement horizons, stronger monitoring and community benefit flows) and into clearer channels for directing capital—such as hypothecation to NDC-aligned projects and blended finance structures designed to scale high-integrity natural-asset investments.

This ongoing policy-oriented research paper reviews major voluntary and compliance carbon markets and shows that none currently include the basic legal, ethical, and monitoring provisions needed to deliver long-term greenhouse-gas reductions together with biodiversity and social co-benefits. The analysis highlights structural weaknesses: ambiguous UNFCCC Article 6 guidance, the absence of a global oversight mechanism, inconsistent standards across exchanges, and the practical limits on non-state actors working across national boundaries, that together depress investment into forestry and natural-asset projects, particularly in the Global South. These dynamics risk shifting land use toward extractive activities (for example timber) rather than sustained ecosystem protection, undermining both climate and development outcomes.

Our paper then identifies concrete design failures and corrective options. We document how current market practices often ignore biodiversity (favoring monocultures), routinely set credit retirement windows far shorter than the atmospheric lifetime of CO₂, and leave local communities without guaranteed shares of project benefits or roles in monitoring, all of which reduce the credibility and permanence of claimed emissions reductions. To address this, we recommend stronger supranational oversight or a UN-linked approval pathway for methodologies, hypothecation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to channel funding into high-quality removal projects, explicit SDG and community-benefit requirements within crediting rules, and longer retirement/guard-rail periods for credits so projects align with the multi-century timescales of atmospheric CO₂. These reforms, the paper argues, would reduce greenwashing risk, stabilise asset values for forests in the Global South, and make high-integrity forestry investments more attractive to prudent institutional investors.

This policy paper provides both a diagnosis and a practical roadmap for market reform that would materially increase the supply of credible, investable forestry-based climate solutions.

Implementing the paper’s recommendations would create clearer investment rules, stronger social and biodiversity safeguards, and more reliable long-term returns tied to verified climate outcomes, outcomes that Balance supports and will continue to advance through methodology development, data transparency, and collaborative engagement with policymakers and market platforms.

Live touring is now the largest revenue stream in the music industry, yet until now there has been no standard, transparent way for organisers or their backers to measure event-level greenhouse-gas emissions. Our paper first reviews existing approaches from the industry, and then sets clear event boundaries, distinguishes which inputs can be observed versus estimated, and publishes an open-access calculator that produces both total event emissions and an emissions-per-attendee figure suitable for use in ticket pricing or “balancing” programs. To keep the approach practical for event organisers, we categorise venue types and sizes, use established intensity and emissions factors, and supply conservative, industry-backed assumptions for transport, accommodation and waste.

Practical implications for the music industry are straightforward: the model shows that roughly 80% of event emissions are tied to venues and attendees (travel, accommodation, food/waste) while artist-related activities make up the remainder. That means reduction and mitigation efforts will most cost-effectively target venue energy, attendee travel choices and accommodation. The calculator also translates emissions into a per-ticket balancing cost so organisers and their financiers can transparently price and fund Balance Units (or other chosen mitigating mechanisms) at the point of sale. We designed the methodology to improve with real industry data, including a proposed shared data repository and annual updates to emissions factors.

A vast area of Britain was once covered by a globally rare and ecologically vital habitat: temperate rainforest. These wet, ancient, and mossy woodlands have been almost entirely wiped for agriculture, timber, and grazing, reducing their extent to less than 1% of the UK’s land area. This analysis shows that iconic treeless landscapes, such as the Scottish Highlands or the Peak District, are not wild, natural environments but are in fact the degraded result of this long history of human intervention. A comprehensive assessment reveals that only 7% of Britain’s native woodlands are in good ecological health. Lacking the complexity, deadwood, and veteran trees needed to support a vibrant ecosystem, they have become “green deserts,” leading to a severe collapse in the populations of woodland birds, dormice, and other specialist wildlife.

Regarding solutions, a holistic and regenerative approach is proposed, integrating large-scale ecological restoration with a transformation in land use. By blending rainforest recovery with regenerative agriculture practices like agroforestry and permaculture, a sustainable rural economy can be built. This model creates resilient income streams for local communities through nature-based enterprises—including apiculture, eco-tourism, sustainable timber, and artisan forest products—making them essential partners of the landscape. This approach is also shown to be a superior economic alternative to traditional farming, improving the local economy and biodiversity in tandem.

This chapter studies the global opportunity for forest restoration and presents a rigorous methodology for unlocking its carbon sequestration potential–up to 20% of global emissions–while delivering social and economic benefits to local & indigenous communities.

Summary
This chapter explores how to realize this potential through a nuanced approach that includes reforestation, rewilding, and agroforestry, tailored to each landscape. Recognizing that this opportunity requires a carefully planned strategy, the analysis also assesses what is realistically achievable. To ensure restoration efforts are effective, equitable, and permanent, this chapter introduces the “Balance Methodology”. Its core principles ensure that projects lock away carbon for at least 99 years, actively enhance biodiversity, and, crucially, guarantee that indigenous peoples are central partners who receive direct economic benefits. This framework moves beyond simple carbon accounting to value the holistic health of the ecosystem and the well-being of its human custodians.

By applying this robust methodology, the chapter quantifies the enormous potential for carbon sequestration over a 100-year cycle, creating a significant, nature-based solution to climate change. Furthermore, it assesses the economic value of this stored carbon and outlines how sustainable management of these restored forests can create durable income streams for local peoples, whose traditional knowledge is also essential for long-term success. The result is a powerful model for climate action that simultaneously addresses biodiversity loss and social justice.

This chapter reveals how the standard, piecemeal approach to building refurbishment squanders billions and locks in massive CO2 emissions, and presents a proven, holistic model that can cut operational costs by up to 60% and global emissions by 10%, often without requiring new capital.

Summary
Buildings are a massive driver of the climate crisis, responsible for around 37% of energy-related CO2 emissions globally. This chapter finds that the way we repair and upgrade them is fundamentally broken. The conventional “piecemeal” approach consistently leads to oversized, inefficient systems and misses huge opportunities for savings, resulting in energy waste and high costs for decades.

A far more effective path is the “Intelligent Encasement” model, which treats a building as an integrated system, not a collection of parts. This approach advocates a mandatory, whole-systems feasibility study before any major refurbishment funds are spent. Instead of simply swapping out an old HVAC unit, this model prioritizes upgrading the building’s “envelope” first—improving insulation, air-tightness, and glazing to reduce the underlying demand for heating and cooling. This logical first step means a much smaller, more efficient, and less expensive HVAC system is required to do the job.
The results of this strategic shift can result in operational savings of 40-60%. Critically, this is not requiring large new investments. These outcomes are often realized by redirecting existing, planned capital expenditure. The primary barrier to this hugely beneficial change is not technology or finance, but a lack of political and social will. This chapter makes a compelling case for a global policy mandate to make this approach into a new standard.

This chapter outlines a revolutionary yet achievable vision for global agriculture that transforms it from a primary source of degradation into a powerful climate solution, capable of sequestering 2-4 gigatonnes of CO2 while improving human health and rebuilding ecosystems on land and at sea.

Summary
Modern agriculture’s climate impact is overwhelmingly dictated by meat production, which uses up to 60% of the world’s agricultural land while degrading soils and depleting them of carbon. However, by shifting global diets away from conventional meat, we can free up a continent-sized landmass for restoration. And, by changing how we farm the remaining land, we can turn depleted soils back into the rich carbon sinks they once were. On the land freed from livestock, a focus on ecologically sound reforestation and rewilding can draw down immense amounts of CO2 while restoring critical biodiversity. In a case of full global application these practices could sequester carbon equivalent to 5% to 15 % of current annual global emissions (2 to 4.4 gigatons). On farmland, a pivot to regenerative and organic practices—including ancient, proven techniques like biochar—can rebuild soil health.

This regenerative vision extends beyond rural landscapes to our oceans through sustainable kelp farming and to our cities through local and vertical agriculture. It also assures healthier diets, which can lead to dramatically lower rates of chronic disease and reduced healthcare costs, alongside improved mental well-being. The chapter concludes by calling for a complete overhaul of agricultural policy, including reforming subsidies and creating legal frameworks that protect restored ecosystems to ensure this change delivers a healthier, more prosperous, and climate-stable future for all.

Billions of small, personal choices—on food, energy, travel, and consumption—can aggregate up to 4.8 gigatons of CO₂ reductions per year, making individual and cultural shifts a crucial part of global climate mitigation.

Summary
This chapter reframes climate action as part of a personal change. While systemic shifts in energy, agriculture, and industry are essential, the chapter argues that a culture of mindful consumption, responsible travel, sustainable diets, and efficient household practices could collectively avoid 10% of the total emissions reductions needed, up to 4.8 Gt CO₂ annually. This is the “One by One, Tonne by Tonne” philosophy. Namely, if one billion people cut just one tonne from their footprint each year, the impact would match the annual emissions of a major industrialized nation.

The chapter details priority domains for action—household energy, transport, food, and material consumption—while showing how education, cultural narratives, and social norms make sustainable behaviour aspirational rather than sacrificial. From the influence of music and art to the quiet power of peer imitation and “nudging,” the chapter argues that shifting values and defaults can embed sustainability into daily life. Behaviour change, amplified by enabling policy and infrastructure, is a foundational and often underestimated lever for a just and low-carbon future.

Strategic litigation against fossil fuel companies and governments, modelled on past successes against Big Tobacco, could unlock trillions in damages, disincentivise new fossil investments, and accelerate gigatons of avoided emissions through a global clean energy transition.

Summary
This chapter explores the growing field of climate litigation as a lever for justice and systemic change. Drawing on precedents in tobacco, asbestos, and other mass torts, the authors outline how fossil fuel companies may face liability for misleading investors, concealing known climate risks, and breaching duties of care. Cases like New York State v. ExxonMobil and NGO-led actions by ClientEarth illustrate how shareholder suits, public nuisance claims, and fiduciary duty challenges are testing the bounds of corporate accountability.

The potential consequences are far-reaching. The credible threat of astronomical damages could make fossil assets uninvestable, accelerating the stranding of reserves and redirecting capital to clean energy. Successful cases could also channel settlement funds into adaptation, loss, and damage, particularly in vulnerable regions. While litigation is slow, it is reshaping norms of corporate behaviour and defining climate inaction as a legal as well as moral liability. The chapter stresses that litigation is not a substitute for strong policy, but when combined with it, law can be a useful lever for climate justice and rapid decarbonisation.

Policymaking which enforces legally binding national targets, aiming for the removal of fossil-fuel subsidies and related roadblocks, are the levers that can unlock many gigatonnes of CO₂ reductions and make other “low-hanging fruit” much more likely to happen.

Summary
This chapter argues that technology and individual action alone won’t meet climate goals unless they are embedded in sustained political will and enforceable legal/policy commitments. Drawing lessons from the Montreal Protocol and regional responses to acid rain, the chapters shows how science, public awareness, and decisive policymaking can produce rapid, large-scale environmental wins. From that history emerges a practical prescription: set ambitious, science-based national targets made legally binding, and pair them with comprehensive policy suites (carbon pricing, targeted public investment, standards). This allows for the redirection of vast sums currently spent on fossil-fuel and harmful agricultural subsidies into decarbonisation and regenerative land uses.

The chapter also highlights the social and cultural foundations of durable political change. It emphasises the roles of engaged civil society, including indigenous knowledge systems and transparent governance (including new tools that could expose lobbying and procurement distortions) in creating the momentum for binding commitments. The chapter acknowledges powerful barriers and proposes realistic institutional responses (independent oversight, legal accountability, just-transition measures, and hypothecated revenue recycling) to manage those risks while accelerating equitable decarbonisation.

By moving from disclosure to fuller decarbonisation, and by embracing a role in green innovation, global industry can cut emissions across its value chains while driving a worldwide sustainability revolution. This could account for up to 10% of the global emissions challenge (potentially 4.8 Gt CO2 annually.)

Summary
Industry is both the problem and the solution: responsible for vast emissions but uniquely able to scale solutions. This chapter calls for corporations to shift from mere reporting of carbon footprints to implementing verifiable decarbonisation strategies—fleet electrification, 100% renewable electricity procurement, supply chain decarbonisation, and sustainable sourcing. The cumulative effect, if applied systematically, could reshape global emissions profiles.

The chapter highlights two structural priorities: upgrading inefficient grids into smart networks and promoting decentralised power generation, which alone could abate up to 4.8 Gt CO₂ annually. It also advances the concept of the “Balance Methodology”—a holistic framework that addresses residual emissions while simultaneously delivering gains for biodiversity and human rights.
Looking further ahead, breakthroughs in fusion, geothermal, solar, and ocean energy, combined with digital technologies like AI and distributed ledgers, could define a sustainable sixth industrial revolution. Those innovating corporations that embrace this convergence of ethics, innovation, and economic opportunity will not only survive but lead the next economy.

This chapter explains why the energy transition is stalling despite the clear economic superiority of renewables, identifying the political and systemic barriers that must be surpassed to accelerate a genuine shift away from fossil fuels. In doing so it analyses existing evidence from economics and political science regarding what would be required for a global transition.

Summary
This analysis confronts a paradox in the global energy landscape. While clean energy sources like solar and wind are now demonstrably cheaper than new fossil fuels in most parts of the world, global consumption of oil, gas, and coal continues its relentless climb. This is not a true “energy transition” but rather a period of “energy addition,” where surging renewable generation is largely being used to meet the world’s growing appetite for new energy, rather than actively displacing the incumbent fossil fuel infrastructure at the pace required by climate science.

The chapter frames the trillions of dollars in fossil fuel infrastructure as “stranded assets”—all of which are becoming fundamentally uneconomic liabilities, posing a significant risk to unprepared investors and economies. Drawing from historical technological disruptions, such as the shift from horse-drawn transport to the automobile, the chapter argues for an overhaul. It concludes by exploring strategies to accelerate this evolution, emphasizing also the social dividends of a renewable world, from improved public health and energy independence to robust job creation.

To fuel the clean energy transition, this paper outlines the necessity of improving resource efficiency and circularity on Earth today, while cautiously and cooperatively developing the vast material resources of space for tomorrow.

Summary
The transition to a low-carbon economy is paradoxically material-intensive. This research highlights the coming “resource hunger,” showing that technologies like electric vehicles, wind turbines, and batteries require vast quantities of critical minerals—such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper—with demand projected to quadruple by 2040. This creates a challenge regarding how to source these materials without repeating the environmental and geopolitical pitfalls of the fossil fuel era.

The chapter first outlines a suite of immediate, Earth-bound solutions that must be prioritized. These include transforming mining through sustainable practices like biomining and automation; embracing a truly circular economy to maximize recycling of end-of-life products and design new ones for durability and reuse; and fostering breakthroughs in material science to create high-performance alternatives that reduce reliance on scarce or problematic minerals. The chapter also explores the plausibility of an “extraterrestrial resource frontier.” As launch costs plummet, sourcing vital materials from the Moon and near-Earth asteroids is becoming a long-term possibility. These bodies contain vast reserves of water (for in-space propellant), precious metals, and unique elements like Helium-3 (a potential fuel for clean fusion energy). The chapter argues that developing these resources must be guided by robust international cooperation and strong ethical principles to ensure this new frontier benefits all of humanity and enables a truly sustainable, space-driven economy.

This chapter describes the remaining global carbon budget, revealing that at current emission rates the window to limit warming to 1.5°C will close within this decade.

Summary
This research explains the science behind the carbon budget, which quantifies the maximum amount of additional carbon dioxide humanity can release into the atmosphere to retain a given probability of limiting global warming to targets like 1.5°C or 2°C. Based on the near-linear relationship between cumulative emissions and temperature rise, the budget serves as our planet’s finite atmospheric allowance. The analysis presents the figures from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). With global CO2 emissions near 40 Gigatonnes per year, the budget for a 50% chance of staying below the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal is projected to be exhausted in just a few years.

This finding reveals that only sustained emissions cuts can preserve this critical climate target. Exceeding the budget necessitates a reliance on unproven, large-scale carbon dioxide removal technologies later in the century, comprising in sum an extremely risky proposition. The budget presents a physical limit that demands a transformative global response and makes the rapid overhaul of our energy, industrial, and land-use systems immediately imperative.